Sunday, October 03, 2004

What's the spread?

This weekend saw a few notable upsets in the world of college football. Ohio State's bid to win the Big Ten took a step back after losing to Northwestern (which breaks my heart). West Virginia's national championship hopes were dashed, as were Fresno State's hopes.

These upsets got me thinking, who is the underdog in tomorrow's argument?

Certainly, a case can be made for the government as the underdog. If the Court said what it means and means what it said in Blakely, the government is in big trouble. The "law" certainly doesn't favor the government, Witte, Dunnigan, Edwards, etc. notwithstanding. At the same time, the practical impact of a ruling for the respondents may make one of the Justices in the majority squeamish, giving the government the edge.

On the other hand, when it comes to the oral argument itself, the respondents are the underdog. Acting SG Paul D. Clement certainly has an experience edge over the very capable respondent's lawyers when it comes to arguing in front of the Supreme Court. So, the government clearly is playing "at home" in this one.

According to the poll results on this page, the guidelines are headed for valhalah or purgatory, depending on where you sit.

All told, I think the line in this one is respondents -1 1/2 Justices.

And one more question while we're on the topic of underdogs and Blakely. How did Jamal Lewis get such a great deal?

(Note: The Blakely blog does not encourage or condone gambling on cases before the Supreme Court, or any court. This post is for novelty purposes only, much like every other post.)

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